Archive for August, 2006

Bebo And Myspace.com Reality Check based on $436 test

August 9, 2006

After reading about bebo trying to sell its self here,  and google paying $900 million for google adsense to show ads on myspace and other sites I thought i’d share some advertising tests i’ve done.

I spent  $436.00 on bebo last week via google.

1,831 clicks
1,641,390 impressions.  
conversions 30 times worse then the average adsense site.

In terms of conversions,  the traffic from bebo resulted in 30 times less signups then I would get from the average adsense site, and resulted in 1/20th the number of pageviews from users clicking through.    I estimate 95%+ of the clicks coming from bebo where accidental,  considering the click thru rate was 0.11% that isn’t unreasonable.  There are many forums on the internet where people complain clicks from big social networks are useless as they are pretty much all accidental.

I think the myspace-google deal was really about toolbar distribution and fox’s other properties.   Even yahoo has come out and said myspace clicks are worthless and has banned users from using YPN ads on their msypace profiles because they don’t convert at all,  and yahoo didn’t want to make a deal with myspace.

If myspace inventory starts flooding adsense, publishers will switch to YPN by the hundreds of thousands.   Categories earning $1.00 a click could easilly be reduced to 3 cents click  when so much junk inventory gets tossed into the system.

AOL Search Data Shows Users Planning to commit Murder.

August 7, 2006

*** Update****  Monday July 7th 7 PM PST  

Users in the comments are pissed off at the idea that people can be arrested for planning a crime like murder, calling it minority report like.   I ask you why is it that americans have no problems arresting people that are planning or researching how to conduct terrorist attacks?  Yet if a person plans on killing his wife that is ok, until he actually does it?   How many people do you have to plan on killing before its ok for a company like AOL to hand your records over to the government? I am not taking sides,  I’m just pointing out the obvious double standard.  This story will open a can of worms, and will decide just how private your data online really is.

http://research.aol.com released a list of 20 million + searches by 500,000 AOL users.  Contained in this list are social security numbers, credit cards and other personal information.   There are some truly scary things in this database.

There are hundreds of searches from people looking to kill themselves and even more scary are searches from users that seem to be looking to commit murder.

Check out the search history for  user 17556639,  most recent search is at the bottom of the list..  Does this look like the search history of a user wanting to do something bad? 

17556639 how to kill your wife
17556639 how to kill your wife
17556639 wife killer
17556639 how to kill a wife
17556639 poop
17556639 dead people
17556639 pictures of dead people
17556639 killed people
17556639 dead pictures
17556639 dead pictures
17556639 dead pictures
17556639 murder photo
17556639 steak and cheese
17556639 photo of death
17556639 photo of death
17556639 death
17556639 dead people photos
17556639 photo of dead people
17556639 www.murderdpeople.com
17556639 decapatated photos
17556639 decapatated photos
17556639 car crashes3
17556639 car crashes3
17556639 car crash photo

This is the very data that google won a legal battle to keep from the government.   What is going to happen to the search industry now?   What are peoples privacy rights?   If people are using AOL to search for ways of killing their spouse  what should be done about it?

I think because of the data contained in these search results the government is going to be taking a lot closer look at the search industry and things will definitely change. 

Techcrunch has more on it here talking about the stupidity and coming fallout that AOL is facing..  

*******Update*****  Monday July 7th 10 AM PST  AOL Officially comments in the comments section below.

Andrew Weinstein - AOL Spokesperson  

All –

This was a screw up, and we’re angry and upset about it. It was an innocent enough attempt to reach out to the academic community with new research tools, but it was obviously not appropriately vetted, and if it had been, it would have been stopped in an instant.

Although there was no personally-identifiable data linked to these accounts, we’re absolutely not defending this. It was a mistake, and we apologize. We’ve launched an internal investigation into what happened, and we are taking steps to ensure that this type of thing never happens again.

Here was what was mistakenly released:

* Search data for roughly 658,000 anonymized users over a three month period from March to May.

* There was no personally identifiable data provided by AOL with those records, but search queries themselves can sometims include such information.

* According to comScore Media Metrix, the AOL search network had 42.7 million unique visitors in May, so the total data set covered roughly 1.5% of May search users.

* Roughly 20 million search records over that period, so the data included roughly 1/3 of one percent of the total searches conducted through the AOL network over that period.

* The searches included as part of this data only included U.S. searches conducted within the AOL client software.

Our apologies again.

Andrew Weinstein
AOL Spokesperson  

AOL Search Data Shows Myspace growing via SEO SPAM.

August 7, 2006

The following is a list of the webs most SEO’d sites.    Taken from AOL’s search data.    The data sample is from 365422 users that did a search and actually went to a site.     As you can see the top websites are SEO’d beyond belief.   This is a count of UNIQUE users going to a destination site over 3 months.   If someone went to google.com  50 times they are only counted once. 

The data brings up several questions,  like is myspace REALLY growing organically?   People are hitting profiles.myspace.com,  music.myspace.com  because they infest/mass spammed  the search engines.   No other social network even shows up in the data in any meaningful way.  In 3 months 19321/365422 or 5.3% users landed on myspace because google indexed them so well.   We can conclude that  5.3% of all users in the united states using Google.com are clicking through to myspace every 3 months.    Google.com powers AOL.com 

google.com 59288
en.wikipedia.org 36058
amazon.com 35953
mapquest.com 33165
imdb.com 26492
myspace.com 24483
yahoo.com 23361
geocities.com 16925
bizrate.com 13751
answers.com 12903
profile.myspace.com 12713
tripadvisor.com 11876
superpages.com 11856
nextag.com 11819
cgi.ebay.com 11733
angelfire.com 10256
ask.com 10197
dir.yahoo.com 10195
shopping.msn.com 9577
ebay.com 9564
travel.yahoo.com 9464
walmart.com 9253
tv.com 9183
southwest.com 8475
mail.yahoo.com 8246
findarticles.com 8165
nlm.nih.gov 8105
city-data.com 8097
irs.gov 8073
epinions.com 8022
switchboard.com 7760
azlyrics.com 7443
target.com 7075
shopping.yahoo.com 6925
disney.go.com 6925
bankofamerica.com 6691
music.myspace.com 6608
msnbc.msn.com 6548
cooks.com 6456
msn.com 6396
cnn.com 6365
microsoft.com 6361
ehow.com 6201
weather.com 6163
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov 6154
members.aol.com 5974
usps.com 5964
webmd.com 5942
topix.net 5822
kbb.com 5455
sing365.com 5350
greatschools.net 5294
idolonfox.com 5269
drugs.com 5255
infoplease.com 5193
shopping.com 5177
hotmail.com 5103
nbc.com 5055
maps.yahoo.com 4937
ticketmaster.com 4933
dictionary.reference.com 4933
medicinenet.com 4923
flickr.com 4856
lowes.com 4749
gamespot.com 4644
experts.about.com 4590
pbs.org 4552
whitepages.com 4542
dmoz.org 4505
mayoclinic.com 4491
hotel-guides.us 4477
wunderground.com 4371
bbc.co.uk 4212
homedepot.com 4205
xanga.com 4176
mtv.com 4166
cduniverse.com 4149
groups.msn.com 4140
craigslist.org 4126
cdc.gov 4098
rottentomatoes.com 4098
hgtv.com 4052
automotive.com 4021
bedbathandbeyond.com 3996
local.yahoo.com 3995
dealtime.com 3989
starpulse.com 3973
fotosearch.com 3942
partypop.com 3904
abc.go.com 3897
kidshealth.org 3879
epodunk.com 3852
enchantedlearning.com 3848
usatoday.com 3803
members.tripod.com 3802
wrongdiagnosis.com 3801
lyricsdownload.com 3792
southernfood.about.com 3761
apple.com 3701
homes.com 3680
emedicine.com 3635
marriott.com 3634
rxlist.com 3601
foodnetwork.com 3587
medhelp.org 3580
lyrics007.com 3506
washingtonpost.com 3489
vvvvvv.in.ua 3472
hometownlocator.com 3398
magicyellow.com 3376
state.nj.us 3361
nps.gov 3348
download.com 3305
askmen.com 3292
rootsweb.com 3259
stlyrics.com 3218
nick.com 3207
lyricsandsongs.com 3201
library.thinkquest.org 3197
lyricsfreak.com 3141
maps.google.com 3114
earth.google.com 3058
news.bbc.co.uk 3051
vh1.com 3034
search.yahoo.com 3018
espn.go.com 3006
movies.yahoo.com 3001
sports.espn.go.com 2976
ssa.gov 2944
fafsa.ed.gov 2936
jcpenney.com 2898
freedownloadscenter.com 2895
50states.com 2894
shop.store.yahoo.com 2888
cityguide.aol.com 2887
pbase.com 2878
costco.com 2869
query.nytimes.com 2860
realtor.com 2859
qvc.com 2847
careerbuilder.com 2843
business.com 2834
aim.com 2823
continental.com 2820
cbs.com 2736
motors.ebay.com 2725
sears.com 2709
fda.gov 2694
mondotimes.com 2684
cheatcc.com 2678
homegain.com 2678
m-w.com 2660
thefreedictionary.com 2648
faqs.org 2647
nba.com 2640
cbsnews.com 2627
familydoctor.org 2614
ups.com 2598
abcnews.go.com 2583
64.41.125.45 2570
123greetings.com 2549
recipezaar.com 2521
yellowpages.com 2515
playboy.com 2508
ezinearticles.com 2506
healthsquare.com 2502
alibaba.com 2501
bellaonline.com 2485
foodtv.com 2472
nytimes.com 2462
mytravelguide.com 2417
delta.com 2409
eteamz.active.com 2406
mysimon.com 2405
indianchild.com 2402
coasttocoasttickets.com 2397
wellsfargo.com 2392
barnesandnoble.com 2371
bankrate.com 2352
verizon.com 2352
joeant.com 2346
foxnews.com 2343
aol.com 2340
virtualtourist.com 2313
babycenter.com 2299
edmunds.com 2295
expedia.com 2291
flalottery.com 2288
michigan.gov 2284
faqfarm.com 2280
cbs.sportsline.com 2249
health.allrefer.com 2247
cingular.com 2244
hoes.com 2238
shop.com 2236
pricegrabber.com 2227
yp.yahoo.com 2216
hotjobs.yahoo.com 2206
internetautoguide.com 2206
sprint.com 2196
tickco.com 2196
allonlinecoupons.com 2189
youtube.com 2184
company.mapquest.com 2167
nascar.com 2164
anywho.com 2152
movies2.nytimes.com 2146
games.yahoo.com 2121
home.att.net 2118
lyricsondemand.com 2113
cia.gov 2108
whitehouse.gov 2107
mywebpage.netscape.com 2104
disneyworld.disney.go.com 2096
sfgate.com 2081
nyc.gov 2078
highbeam.com 2072
americanheart.org 2069
artistdirect.com 2047
groups.yahoo.com 2038
doityourself.com 2036
complaints.com 2035
bartleby.com 2034
bls.gov 2033
healthgrades.com 2031
everything2.com 2030
lyrics.com 2024
autotrader.com 2015
tradekey.com 2014
timeanddate.com 2010
seeklyrics.com 2003
goggle-a.com 1997
letssingit.com 1996
hometown.aol.com 1990
reversephonedirectory.com 1989
dmv.org 1989
samsclub.com 1983
search.ebay.com 1978
music.aol.com 1974
music.yahoo.com 1964
money.cnn.com 1952
consumeraffairs.com 1947
cafepress.com 1944
43things.com 1942
powells.com 1933
limewire.com 1933
h1.ripway.com 1932
people.yahoo.com 1930
cdkitchen.com 1929
hud.gov 1928
reviews.cnet.com 1926
republika.pl 1923
aa.com 1920
nylottery.org 1919
overstock.com 1917
cartoonnetwork.com 1915
dogbreedinfo.com 1901
orbitz.com 1882
forbes.com 1867
yellowpagecity.com 1860
hallmark.com 1860
answers.google.com 1854
last.fm 1854
pogo.com 1854
vrbo.com 1848
ftc.gov 1840
walgreens.com 1838
landscaping.about.com 1829
bestbuy.com 1808
ebaumsworld.com 1805
wamu.com 1802
magazines.ivillage.com 1802
consumersearch.com 1801
bizjournals.com 1799
pbskids.org 1796
mp3.com 1796
legacy.com 1795
thomasnet.com 1795
hollywood.com 1794
community.webshots.com 1790
mta.nyc.ny.us 1788
finance.yahoo.com 1784
nndb.com 1778
cmt.com 1778
netdoctor.co.uk 1772
amtrak.com 1772
gamefaqs.com 1767
amazon.co.uk 1765
interiordec.about.com 1764
office.microsoft.com 1760
ichotelsgroup.com 1755
wachovia.com 1748
newyork.citysearch.com 1748
chiff.com 1744
npr.org 1742
chase.com 1736
snopes.com 1736
myflorida.com 1735
victoriassecret.com 1728
travelocity.com 1727
ikea.com 1726
circuitcity.com 1726
shopping.superpages.com 1704
nextdaypets.com 1700
nfl.com 1700
abclocal.go.com 1698
toysrus.com 1694
emedicinehealth.com 1686
dickssportinggoods.com 1682
directory.google.com 1680
diynet.com 1680
sparknotes.com 1672
adobe.com 1667
remax.com 1666
t-mobile.com 1649
home.earthlink.net 1649
airtran.com 1647
zappos.com 1641
miniclip.com 1637
travel.state.gov 1634
answers.yahoo.com 1631
ringsurf.com 1629
rotten.com 1628
acronyms.thefreedictionary.com 1619
wwe.com 1619
bullz-eye.com 1617
stores.ebay.com 1616
bluemountain.com 1609
toyota.com 1590
kohls.com 1581
boston.com 1572
acclaimimages.com 1570
fidelity.com 1561
fedex.com 1558
century21.com 1557
hospital-data.com 1554
hbo.com 1552
beauty.about.com 1549
allthelyrics.com 1543
cheats.ign.com 1543
urbandictionary.com 1537
cowboylyrics.com 1534
pimpmyspace.org 1530
epa.gov 1525
marthastewart.com 1517
in.gov 1517
hairfinder.com 1514
hoobly.com 1511
ncaasports.com 1510
ripoffreport.com 1506
pornresource.com 1504
drugstore.com 1503
conectared.com 1502
en.thinkexist.com 1499
cars.com 1499
usairways.com 1491
kidsdomain.com 1490
ryan.in.ua 1489
autos.yahoo.com 1487
celebritywonder.com 1484
monster.com 1480
capitalone.com 1479
addictinggames.com 1478
reviewcentre.com 1476
debauchery.com 1473
eonline.com 1472
gamewinners.com 1471
support.microsoft.com 1470
home.americanexpress.com 1468
mujweb.cz 1466
allrecipes.com 1464
verizonwireless.com 1461
oprah.com 1460
encarta.msn.com 1459
kidzworld.com 1451
sixflags.com 1451
hairboutique.com 1448
united.com 1445
dillards.com 1444
wannabuyamonkey.net 1441
nwa.com 1440
babiesrus.com 1438
azcentral.com 1428
cardomain.com 1420
freetranslation.com 1420
celebsdb.com 1418
britannica.com 1418
facebook.com 1416
dltk-kids.com 1416
kmart.com 1409
lyricstop.com 1409
homerentalads.com 1406
movies.aol.com 1405
newadvent.org 1402
penisbot.com 1396
akc.org 1389
hilton.com 1387
fabuloussavings.com 1379
greyhound.com 1374
goaskalice.columbia.edu 1372
roadsideamerica.com 1362
nationalgeographic.com 1359
pcworld.com 1359
davesgarden.com 1358
familycrafts.about.com 1352
aafp.org 1352
calottery.com 1347
ibiblio.org 1345
myspace.nuclearcentury.com 1345
insiderpages.com 1345
apartmentratings.com 1338
video.google.com 1334
nydailynews.com 1333
merck.com 1333
10best.com 1332
nickjr.com 1332
ivillage.co.uk 1331
metrolyrics.com 1331
searchsystems.net 1327
fox.com 1326
hotproducts.alibaba.com 1325
yahooligans.yahoo.com 1325
usdoj.gov 1323
yellowpages.superpages.com 1322
diynetwork.com 1320
spaces.msn.com 1316
hp.com 1315
wordreference.com 1315
motors.listings.ebay.com 1314
annualcreditreport.com 1314
messenger.yahoo.com 1311
bhg.com 1311
kraftfoods.com 1309
cnnsi.com 1308
puppydogweb.com 1300
myspacesupport.com 1299
realestate.yahoo.com 1298
biz.yahoo.com 1292
ancestorhunt.com 1292
cancer.org 1288
lib.uiowa.edu 1286
stacksandstacks.com 1284
indiana.edu 1282
petfinder.com 1281
womenshealth.about.com 1277
realestate.com 1276
babeinvasion.com 1275
dogpile.com 1273
recipesource.com 1272
jetblue.com 1266
religioustolerance.org 1264
allposters.com 1263
bet.com 1259
sirlinksalot.net 1257
macys.com 1254
citibank.com 1254
jobsearch.about.com 1254
time.com 1250
uscis.gov 1247

AOL search data proves myspace killing dating sites.

August 7, 2006

The following is data pulled from the AOL Search Data of 500,000 users. I only imported 7 of the 8 datasets as the last one was corrupt, this gave me 460,446 unique users.

After looking at some data I came up with the following chart, this should be enough proof that myspace is taking away massive traffic from dating sites. Hitwise reported on their blog the day myspace went down the dating industry got 10% more traffic.
http://weblogs.hitwise.com/bill-tancer/2006/08/myspace_outage_the_post_mortem.html

  Total Searches leading to site. Unique Users # of users going to msypace % of users going to myspace
Plentyoffish.com 3111 612 134 21.9%
Match.com 2869 809 136 16.8%
personals.yahoo.com 1798 388 73 18.8%
Eharmony.com 1312 245 41 16.7%
mate1.com 1154 184 43 23.4%
americansingles.com 839 219 37 16.9%
singlesnet.com 818 117 28 23.9%
true.com 312 100 26 26%

1888 out of 2069 or 91.3% of users went to  only 1 dating site in this sample.  Myspace has 24492 users landing on their site from a total of 115838 searches.   There are more searches then users because in the real world most people can’t tell the difference between entering a URL in a searchbox  or address bar.

Aol Releases Googles most prized Keyword List… Google is gonna get mega spammed.

August 6, 2006

****UPDATE****  Search data shows users planning to commit murder!!!.

I’m shocked that AOL released this data,  Google is going to be pissed, this is because AOL search is just google search rebranded.

http://research.aol.com/pmwiki/pmwiki.php?n=Research.500kUserQueriesSampledOver3Months

The big affiliate marketers will make millions off this,  i’m already busy processing the data,  and after taking a quick peak at the data its an absolute gold mine for PPC and SEO.

Google/ AOL have just given some of the worlds biggest spammers a breakdown of high traffic terms  its just a matter of weeks now until google gets mega spammed with made for adsense sites and other kind of spam sites targetting keywords contained in this list.

This will probably have a huge effect for the ring tone market.  All those big ring tone affiliates doing  $200k+ a month are about to have some huge competition.  At $12.00/signup  bidding on many of these keywords gives you a ROI of 8:1 even at 20 cents a click.

Here is an example of the data…Top search terms for   www.ringtonejukebox.com  

-
3 stooges ringtones
30 seconds to mars ringtone
50’s rock
alexis y fido
all american rejects ring tones with words
aly & aj ringtones
american idol ring tones
anthony hamilton ringtones
avant ringtones
beatles ringtones
bitch wallpaper
blink-182 ringtones
boomer sooner ringtone
broadway ringtones
buy real ringtones
buy ringtones
casino stage play with gerald levert on dvd
cassie ringtones
celebrity voice ringers
cell phone downloadable games
cell phone downloads
cell phone games
cell phone ring tones
cell phone ringtones
cell phone tones
cellphone ringtones
cellphone tunes
cellphone wallpapers
cellular ringtones
cellular south free ringtones
cellular south ringtones
chamillionaire ridin dirty ringtone
cheap ringtones
chicken ringtones
chinese symbol wallpaper
chris brown wallpapers
christian ringtones
country ringtones
country ringtones i think i’ll just stay here and drink
crash test dummies ringtones
crazy chicken ringtone
cricket ring tones
cricket tones
deep purple ringtones
download ring tones
dr. dre ringtones
easy edge ringtones
faith hill ringtones
fight song ringtones
flixtones
free christian ringtones
free country ringtones
free county ringtones
free harley davidson cell phone wallpaper
free ntelos ringtones
free rascal flatts ringtones
free real tone i’m in luv stripper
free real tones
free realtone ringtones
free rig tones
free ring tones for cell phones
free ring tones for cricket phones
free ringer download my hips dont lie
free ringtones centennial
free ringtones for cell phones and real songs
free ringtones for cellular south
free ringtones for ntelos
free ringtones for razr phone
free ringtones for unicel nokia 3220
free ringtones with free sign up
free shared ringtones
free suncom ringtones
game ringtones
games that are metro pcs capable
godsmack ringtones
good charlotte ringtones
hail to the redskins ringtone
halloween movie ringtones
halloween the movie ringtone
hector el bambino
hip hop ringtones
how to ringtones
http www. ringtones.com
jamie kennedy songs circle circle dot dot
jason aldean ring tones
jason aldean ringtones free
jukebox ring tones
keith urban ringtones
latin ringtones
lil romeo ringtones
listen to what a girl wants - b2k
longhorns backgrounds
madonna material girl ringtones
metro pcs free ringtones
motorola razor free ring tones
movie theme ringtones
music for ringtones
music ringtones
native american backgrounds
new r&b & rap ringtones
phone graphics
pitbull ringtones
police siren ringtones
polyphonic cricket ringtones
punk ringtones
purdue university ring tones
purdueuniversity ringtones
queen ringtones
r&b ringtones
rap and hip hop ringtones
rascal flatts ringtones
real ring tones
real ringtones
real song tones
real tone juke box
real tones
real tones.com
really cheap ringtones and music tones
realtone jukebox
realtonejukebox.com
realtones
remy ma ringtones
rick ross ringtones for nextel
ring tone
ring tones
ring tones for cell phone
ring tones for cell phones
ring tones garth brooks
ringer tone
ringer tones
ringtone
ringtone jukebox 2
ringtone with r kelly
ringtone.com1
ringtonejukebox
ringtones
ringtones for cell phones
ringtones for cellular south
ringtones for metro pcs cell phones
ringtones for ntelos
ringtones for ntelos phones
ringtones huey lewis
ringtones jukebox.com
ringtonesjukebox.com
rise against ringtones
rock ringtones
roy d mercer
say goodbye chris brown ringtone
scott storch
seether ringtone the gift
siren cell phone ringtone
sony jukebox
sooner ringtone
sports ring tones
sports ringtones
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If digg is worth 200 million then i’m a billionaire.

August 4, 2006

This latest story on digg is laughable.   The founder of digg owns 30% of the company,  and is estimated to break even with 3 million a year in revenues.  Business week uses alexa data to measure how popular the site is,  says the company is worth 200 million + because that is what someone in the know says.   Numerous other people are ridiculing the article as well.

Earnings Season

August 4, 2006

Spark.net Match.com and Lavalife all reported earnings the last few days.   Nothing really shocking in any of the releases.   Spark.net continues its death spiral with americansingles, and the build out of a massive advertising network.   Lavalife wants more and more advertising revenues and is going heavy into mobile.   Date.com,  True.com,  Webdate and others are all trying to generate revenue via advertising.   I guess there is a lot more pressure now that i’ve shown it can generate real money.  

The recent emarker report on social networking states that 42% of myspace users are aged 35 to 64.  And this is myspace’s largest growth segment,  in the coming months a really big show down between dating sites and myspace is coming.  Unless dating sites are going to raise prices there will be a big decrease in revenues I predict.

** Update from hitwise***

 Myspace went down for 1 day and traffic to dating sites rose 10%

http://weblogs.hitwise.com/bill-tancer/2006/08/myspace_outage_the_post_mortem.html