Archive for March, 2007

Facebook grows 50% in last 30 days…

March 30, 2007

Yet another facebook post…

 http://venturebeat.com/2007/03/30/look-at-facebook/

Clearly yahoo screwed up by not buying facebook,   the previous $2 billion valuation on facebook is starting to look real cheap.    With this growth rate  facebook will pass myspace in the next few months as the largest social network.    Facebook gained 500 million dailly pageviews in the last 30 days,  that is growing the size of plentyoffish every 2 days…  Damn…

On other note  myspace has  just passed $30 million a month in revenue from ads.

http://mashable.com/2007/03/27/myspace-making-30-millionmonth/

43% of facebook messages are spam, according to research paper.

March 27, 2007

43% of facebook messages are spam, according to research paper from HP.

http://www.hpl.hp.com/research/idl/papers/facebook/

Its a very detailed study giving breakdowns of  how facebook users message each other and what they are doing on the site.    

You could swap in match.com plentyoffish  or any other dating site in place of facebook and the usage patterns would be pretty similar.

Facebook continues on…

March 27, 2007

http://www7.flickr.com/photos/500hats/398658941/in/set-72157594550002847/

Stats on facebook….   I think facebook will pass myspace  in a matter of months to become the largest social network…

1 million concurrent users online.
1 billion photos using 120TB
9 million unique logins per day,  500k new users per week
2 TB of ram
Massive growth in the 25-35 demographic.
1 Billion pageviews a day.  (Plentyoffish only does 30M/day)
2.9%  week over week growth.
18 million users

Valleywag was saying that facebook would generate 150 million USD in revenues this year,  without spending a dime on advertising its self.  

In orkut,  37% of users are single and 18% say they are using orkut as a dating site.  http://www.orkut.com/MembersAll.aspx

Since facebook’s explosion in Canada i’m seeing a migration of women off my site onto  facebook and using it as a dating site.  Its amazing to see pageviews per user and session time decline as hundreds of thousands of users start using both sites at the same time.

As i was saying in the previous post,  social networks are subsuming free and paid dating sites and the market will not support both.    Paid dating sites have lost more then 20% of their traffic in the last year and its accelerating.   There will come a point where these paid sites drop below critical mass and the sites will simply no longer work.

The Plan of Action.

March 16, 2007

Now that i’m going to change my site I figure I should go back to the basics and see what dating is all about.

This weekend I’m taking my girlfriend and 4 of her really hot girlfriends for a week long trip to Mexico in a 5 star all inclusive resort in Cancun.   I’m going to sit on my big plush bed under a cabana with  a steady stream of drinks supplied to one hand by my girls, while holding my laptop with the other hand.   Being that it is spring break I can watch how people behave – people in Mexico are similar to those who go online and date because they all behave like no one is watching, and nothing matters.

Now a lot of arm chair generals say what I want to do is impossible it will never work etc etc etc.   Well that is the same thing that was said about every single invention or great successful company out there.    Sadly many people listen to advice of “experts”,  I find most self appointed experts are people who  constantly just point to others who have done something successful but lack any original thoughts or ideas and whose greatest skills are selling their consulting services.  I find someone is an expert when they have taken and idea and executed against it,  ie accomplished something.

So if listening to others isn’t the answer what do you do to innovate?  Well start off by assuming that everyone is a moron,  that is the only way you are going to be open to ideas.     Write them all down,  then look at what experts and normal people would consider possible or has been done.    Those are the ideas that could make you fairly rich or well off.  The ideas that are way out in the field of impossible,  those are the ideas that could make you a billionaire.  The chances of you actually finding one of those are actually pretty high,  the chances of executing on that idea  are slim to none.  That is why there is the saying ideas are a dime a dozen.

Once you’ve got an idea you need a goal to work towards,   if you are working in a cubicle,  your goal may be to experience the world outside of your cage,  or stay at a 5 star whenever you want,  or to go on vacation whenever you want.     For me i’d set my goal to owning the whole resort and the yacht out front and making 100 million a year instead of just millions.  Just because you are already successful doesn’t mean you don’t need a goal to work towards.  Don’t assume that anyone successful thinks differently then you.

Once you got a goal you need to plan how to execute to get there.    So most of my next week will be spent trying to figure out how I can best implement my idea.  This will be about 99% of the effort,  everything has to be planned.   Risk has to be virtually eliminated,  anyone who thinks great entrepeurs are risk takers has a few screws loose.   Its all about minimizing risk and your level of risk should be in step with the potential reward you could get.    I need to make growth goals,  revenue targets etc etc etc,  data mine my existing data and try and project out what will happen/work.

Burn this into your brain, Success doesn’t happen,  its created.

Now I know most of the people reading this are aspiring to create a business of some kind.   Many will just day dream all day but never actually do anything.   I was like that a few years ago,  then I finally sat down and did something, and kept forcing myself to do it till it became a pattern and it turned out hugely successful.    Now i’m going to repeat that and you can as well.   Now when you read this, I’ll be on a beach in Mexico on my big bed watching thousands of girls stream by,  and in between the time it takes you to read this and my next drink arrives I’ll have made your weekly salary.   Now that is either going to make you angry,  or it’s going to inspire you to go create something.  The choice is yours.

Custom Channels.

March 15, 2007

I’ve started splitting out some of my sites pageviews in adsense.     When you do CPM buys on google now you can make ads show site wide as before  or you can make them show up to users under 27,  users 27-45 and users over 45 years old.   When you search for plentyoffish when doing a CPM buy multipul plentyoffish sections will show up each allowing you to target sections of the site or demographics.

The following are the biggest advertisers of the last little while via adsense,  followed by number of clicks on their ads.   As you can see dating sites dont’ even show up,   and I hope that better targetting will rise prices for my in demand demographics/sections. 

TheSoulmateCalculator 244394
offers.spicymint 182010
LoveSoulMate.us 179542
sugardaddyforme 178572
Monster.ca 174116

Changing Direction.

March 14, 2007

I spent some time yesterday looking at graphs from social networks and their usage statistics.  I was struck by how many times bigger they are,  and how they just keep growing.    Myspace and i’m sure facebook users send as many messages per day as plentyoffish users send in several months.   When I look at other sites in the free category I don’t really see any.  Sure there is Okcupid making noise and,  promoting an Ipod for the 10 millionth email sent and there is a publicly traded Free dating site.     Plentyoffish users send more than 10 million emails a week and we get 8-10 times more visitors then all free dating sites combined.  When looking at usage data/ member logins from  compete, comscore and others plentyoffish accounts for 90 to 95% of the free dating category in the english speaking world.

So here we are today like match.com and eharmony we are the leader of our category and we have little to no competetion.    The only problem is there is no more double digit growth and signups pretty much flattened out in US and Canada in the last 6 months.     We should be seeing 20% growth a month plus but we aren’t so where is all the growth going?   All my polls and others research show that social networks are sucking users out of the dating industry by the millions.  

So what to do?  Social Networks are nothing more than glorified dating sites that tried a different interface and it worked and to make matters worse they make 5+ times as much money per user.  Sure people say social network users aren’t all single users,  but those same people choose to ignore the microsoft/sympatico study that showed 30% of yahoo personals users were married/not single.  The average age of social network users has climbed from teens to thirties and the dating industry definitely saw the impact last year as traffic declined 20%

A few years ago  I created a new format that took a niche and created a category and took plentyoffish to a billion pageviews/month site.   But there is no way that this format will take plentyoffish to 10 billion a month or even 2 billion.  I’ve tried making many minor and semi big changes to site the last few months  but nothing has had a real effect.  By real effect I mean adding millions of new users.  So once again time to change the format and move this category forward or create an entirely new category.

True.com

March 13, 2007

What did true.com do in the second week of feb ?

http://www.quantcast.com/true.com ,   hitwise and other sites are reporting that true.com traffic doubled in the second week of feb.       True now has more unique visitors per month than singlesnet and match.com combined which supposidly are #2 and #3.

New myspace campaign ?

Facebook explodes

March 13, 2007

In the last few months Facebook has seen incredable growth in canada.   You can’t go anywhere without hearing about it.    At the same time  the huge social network hi5  has declined as facebook has taken over.    I wonder if Facebook can take over other markets as well.    Its so hard to create a Social/entertainment product that is hugely popular across many different cultures.

http://www.google.com/trends?q=facebook.com%2C+hi5.com%2C+plentyoffish.com%2C+myspace.com&ctab=0&geo=CA&date=all

Other Free sites?

March 13, 2007

I’ve never made a list of free sites,   there are just soo many of them and more pop up every day.  But with so many of them coming along, someone is bound to create something innovative that catches on.   I don’t want to miss out on that.   Here are the biggest sites I could find via the overture Inventory tool.    Are there any others out there with more then 2500 searches a month on their domain? 

http://inventory.overture.com/d/searchinventory/suggestion/

Number after the domain is searches per month. 

Plentyoffish.com  328,648
matchdoctor.com 14,779 
Bookofmatches.com 11,373
okcupid.com  6,438 
connectingsingles.com  3,566 
justsayhi.com 3,469 
smooch.com  2,697 

Brand Confusion.

March 13, 2007

Okcupid is a testing site used mostly by myspace and social networking users and they recently tried to “rebrand” themselves as a dating site.   According to the latest press release and discussions one would think the site is a growing dating site.

I’ve looked into personality testing, and from what i’ve heard from sites using it,  if tests are not part of the signup process less then 10% of daters are willing to use it.    Okcupid claims that 200 million questions have been answered but they don’t say those where “daters” or even members.

I wanted to see if there is something i’m missing.  On the top all time tests for okcupid the following tests are shown.   I’m not exactly sure how grammar tests allow people to meet their perfect match.

1.  Would you like to see my boobs    214,406 takers 10 questions  = 2,144,060 questions answered
     “The Am I Gay? Test” 210826 takers 25 questions =5,270,650 questions answered
     “The Tits, Ass, and Cuteness Test” 492057 takers 18 questions =8,857,026 questions answered
     “The Personality Defect Test” 664101 takers  28 questions = 18,594,828 questions answered
    “The Commonly Confused Words Test” 676672 takers 40 questions  27,066,880 questions answered
    “The Nerd? Geek? or Dork? Test ”  540326 takers 60 questions  32,419,560 questions answered
    “The 3 Variable Funny Test”  533540 takers 23 questions  12,271,420 questions answered

2.  My next step was to check out technorati and see what users post.  http://www.technorati.com/search/okcupid.com    There is nearly a post a minute and it seems like a lot of users under the age of 18 are taking these tests.   You don’t need to signup to take a test so that would explain it.  I went through a few hundred posts and I couldn’t find a single instance of where someone talked about using okcupid as a dating site or even being a member.  They just used the site to take tests.

Over all I just don’t get okcupid,   http://www.quantcast.com/okcupid.com  says everyone on the site is pretty much 18-24 which is not the traditional Dating market.   Although okcupid claims they are the biggest free site,  no ranking system shows them having any meaningful marketshare.    Right now its a massive  testing site for the under 25 crowd using social networks  with a dating component.    As I said before traditional sites who’ve tried adding tests only saw a sub 10% uptake rate,  I can’t see that  being any different with okcupid.   To me it seems like 2 seperate sites that attract totally different users are trying to be merged into one.  It makes me think emode  version 2.

The other players like matchdoctor and justsayhi etc  have a far more straight forward business and target the mainstream.  The sites are clear and consistent in what the main purpose of the site is.  I see them having a bigger impact over the long term for that reason.