Web 2.0 Conference.

I was at the web 2.0 Conference this week.   Some of the things that stand out.

1.  Founder of Electronic arts is starting a mobile company,  Said on stage Mobile dating is 100 Billion dollar industry.  Far as i know mobile revenues in north america  are under 6 million.
2.  Most of the new companies discussed seem focused on stealing others content  repacking it somehow  or out right copying existing companies.
3.  Most executives I talked to were more focused on talking about what company they were going to start next not the company they were currently at.

16 Responses to “Web 2.0 Conference.”

  1. jfrate Says:

    Markus – the mobile market is bigger than you think. Last year I did some numbers for my sites to figure out how many times someone accessed it with a mobile phone, an opera browser, or a blackberry browser. When I added up the total session time, and multiplied by 5 cents a minute, the amount of money the mobile networks made was over 10 million last year. when i multiplied by 2 cents a kb, it was about the same.

    If you did the same math for plentyoffish, you’d probably be surprised how much people have paid to access your site!

  2. alrayyes Says:

    Not quite true & somewhat irrelevant:

    1) More and more people are getting all in internet access where they don’t pay per kb any more
    2) Of the people that do pay per kb, you (the website operator) don’t see a dime of that money. Also the current pricing scheme’s where one pays per item or per minute are just insane. Only a matter of time before people come to their senses and realize that a couple of bucks for a ringtone/sms is just plain highway robbery.

  3. Carlos Says:

    True, more and more people are getting data plans so that they don’t have to pay per KB but no matter how you look at it, it is still expensive and wireless carriers are making a killing here. There are so called “unlimited data plans” which are not unlimited at all and as soon as one goes over the limit, they pay majorly for it.

    Also true that if PlentyofFish had a WAP site, the operators would make money but Markus wouldn’t see a dime from them. There are ways around this by using advertizement and also getting picked up by the carriers (as long as a lot of people are using your service carriers would be very interested in that, and a lot of money could be made here).

    From a technical point of view, stay away from SMS/Text Messaging and WAP sites because the user experience is not good enough to obtain critical mass. A Custom app is the way to go and given your large monthly user base, you are in a position to really lead in this field before someone else takes over. Do the mobile app right and you will see tremendous interest unlike what has been previously done for mobiles. People will use it and you can easily test it on some of your members.

    The iPhone has shown the world the mobile possibilites and now the world is ready for it. You have been hearing my mobile dating ramblings for a while, mobile development is my field of expertize. Meeting people/dating is something that comes naturaly when one is mobile so a great application for cellphones.

  4. Markus Says:

    70% of people who use Mobile Dating don’t have a computer.
    Vast majority of mobile dating users are under the age of 25. Online dating is 39+

    Given the current demographics maybe 5-10% of my users would even consider mobile dating and only a tiny fraction of that would even use it.

  5. Andy Arnott Says:

    Devices like the iPhone will make the mobile market a huge one in the coming years…

  6. Carlos Says:

    You will find mobile sucess in different geographies. In Europe you have more cellphones than people. Penetration is over 100%. Give the majority of your 39+ age users a good reason to use a mobile to hook up with a possible date and they will go for it. A possible scenario here would be using bluetooth to get to meet single people you pass by everyday and you are not aware they are single and looking. For example at supermarkets, malls, even the gym, you need that first ice breaker and a mobile dating app could provide that functionality where this is pretty much impossible online. Mobile dating is a pretty good LBS (Location based service) app.

    Let me just say that you can not really predict how your members would react to mobile dating because they haven’t experienced what else mobile dating can offer. If the functionality improves their dating success, word will spread and people will use it. Thing is, you need to experiment to see what works and what doesn’t, you can’t calculate the outcome here. Let me just finish with a great quote I once read and keep beside me all the time.

    “The United States was built by people who dared to attempt what more knowledgeable experts said couldn’t be done.”

  7. Andrew Johnson Says:

    Give it a few years and nearly all mobile phones will have fully featured web browsers like the iPhone does today. I browse the web from my phone just like I do on my desktop, with a broadband wireless connection.

    The only major difference here will be between sites that are overloaded with graphics, ads, and complex layouts that are unusable/unviewable.

    In terms of site owners monetizing mobile customers, that comes with premium SMS billing. The people that are talking about making money from this probably won’t be making much, if any. Premium SMS is maturing, billing is becoming stricter (a year an a half ago all you needed was a phone number, no opt-in or confirmation, thus the big issue with “free” ringtones.) Users with the latest gen phones will have no reason to pay for something that they can access for free launching their web browser. All that said, there is money to be made. $100 billion? Good luck!

  8. Carlos Says:

    Ohhh I highly doubt that nearly all mobile phones will have full web browsers like the iPhone in a few years.

    The holygrail of wireless is spectrum and there isn’t enough bandwidth out there to satisfy full mobile wireless browsing economically. Have you tried using the Safari Browser on iPhone over the EDGE network ? Way too slow and costly; great when using over WiFi though. Spectrum is a high valued real estate that is not getting any larger.

    Today wireless data is extremely expensive and that won’t change any time soon. In Canada Bell Mobility for its cheapest plan charges $25 per month for 4MB of data. That’s $6.25/MB/month, addition cost over this limit is billed at $12/MB. Just visit a few pages with a full browser like Safari and your wireless data budget is gone. For wireless you need custom apps with optimized data transfer that takes into account bandwidth and lag times.

    Going back to your point regarding accessing free stuff. People will pay to access free stuff on mobile as long as their bill is smaller at the end of the month. Here is something to consider, some carriers have mobile music stores where a user pays $1.49 per song to get that song on their phones. You can buy the same song on iTunes for $0.99, or steal it from somewhere else for free. Now if you try to download that song that you got from iTunes (or somewhere else) to your phone wirelessly, you will pay around $25 (assume song is 4MB) for the wireless data transfer, now that cost disappears if your buy it from the carrier wirelessly for $1.49. So the free option here ends up costing the user more when the bill comes.

  9. Andrew Johnson Says:

    Well, I can’t speak for the Canadian market, but here in the US I am paying roughly $50 a month for Verizon’s EVDO. I can stream video over my phone.

    As for doubting the full browser experience, anyone with a smart phone has that now. The iPhone was far from revolutionary in that respect. The full PC experience is coming to the phone, thats inevitable. Sure, it might not be available for the $25 mobile phone, but its going to be standard for the mid to high end.

    I have a 1 pound Ultra Mobile PC sitting next to me right now, its the size of a paperback book. It can run the latest version of Windows Vista and do everything my full size laptop can. The only difference is the tiny screen real estate. (but its still a full 1024×600 squeezed into 5 1/2 inches.) Give it 2-3 years and you’ll be able to run the latest version of desktop Windows on your mobile phone. Microsoft is very much aware of and focused on mobile computing right now.

    The whole point is, the future of mobile is one and the same as the web. Premium services will still exist, but that market with see its user share erode. I am not saying mobile specific dating is a waste of time either, just hit the ground running *right* now, not 12 or 36 months from now.

  10. Marc Says:

    jfrate, the mobile market is smaller than you think. Much much smaaaller.

    Andrew stole my thunder so I’ll reiterate. The mobile market as being thought of as a seperate market is the future that will never come and the big money possibilities are already on the wane. The mobile market will be folded into the regular web. As Carlos notes it may take more than a few years to become mainstream, but because of the web’s persistent and unrelenting gravity on mobile, the mobile market will never quite form and realize as anything significant and unto itself. So yeah, some people will make money, but I think anyone in mobile dating needs to have a game plan to transition to the web, rather than web-based dating transitioning to mobile.

  11. Carlos Says:

    Just to clarify, I don’t beleive in the separate mobile market either. There is only one online market, the internet; but I do beleive that just pushing the exact same HTML code to a small screen is not the future because the user experience is bad. Scrolling is an annoyance that attention deprived cellphone users will not put up with, even though it looks great as a demo. The Nokia E61 has been out for over 1.5 years with an amazing browser that you get very tired of it quickly.

    The trendy thing on mobile today is mobile widgets that help aggregate tidbits of information, but as Markus mentioned that amounts to stealing peoples content if there is no agreement in place. The online future is heading towards web services and these services can easily be formatted properly for mobile to ehance their user experience.

    Here is something to ponder… The iPhone comes with a full web browser and the best one so far at that with the largest screen (i.e. best possible mobile web browsing experience, right ?) Q: How come facebook decided to generate a special web site for the iPhone ? A: They wanted to provide the best user experience to iPhone users, the generic PC standard site just didn’t cut it.

    I beleive that there is a large market for proper mobile access to online dating content. It would be great to access plentyoffish efficiently with a mobile and also perhaps use some mobile only bells and whistles. Mobile can add a distinct value to online dating but I don’t beleive there is anything special about just mobile dating.

    Markus you have a large number of users and a good number of them have cellphones and would be willing to use their cellphones to access your web site, why not provide that to them instead of just sitting still and letting others have a reason to attract your users.

  12. Mayo Says:

    Congrats for being #1 in UK!

  13. Carlos Says:

    #1 in the UK, that’s great !!! The UK is also way ahead of the US in wireless/mobile adoption.

    More ammunition to the mobile user experience fire; just announced today a native Blackberry app to access Facebook. Here is a link and some quotes from the press release :

    http://www.rim.net/news/press/2007/pr-24_10_2007-01.shtml

    ————-
    …Facebook® for BlackBerry® Smartphones, an exciting new BlackBerry software application that enables fast, streamlined and optimized mobile access to the popular Facebook social utility using a BlackBerry smartphone…

    … The application leverages the push-based BlackBerry system architecture and Facebook Platform to create an unparalleled mobile experience for Facebook users…

    …With the Facebook for BlackBerry Smartphones application, Facebook users can wirelessly send and view messages, photos, pokes and Wall posts. The rich, native application goes beyond browser-based access…
    ————-

  14. Carlos Says:

    Sorry for the multiple post but some more Facebook Mobile data from Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz at the CTIA 2007 Wireless IT keynote in San Francisco.

    – impressive mobile growth: soon to be 4 million mobile users with 300 million page views. Growth rate on mobile larger than web site (4% vs. 3%).

    http://www.ctia.org/wirelessit07/?day=2
    Click on “Dustin Moskovitz”, then “FaceBook Expands Through Mobile”.

  15. Hosting Says:

    The bubble maybe will get an little cherry, but there will be more success then before!

  16. xe mercedes tai da nang Says:

    xe mercedes tai da nang

    Web 2.0 Conference. | Plenty of fish blog

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